Market Notes: Rob Citrone’s World of Opportunity
2026 Boom, Latin America Rotation, and a Fake Recession
A raw recap of Rob Citrone’s (American billionaire hedge fund manager) market views — long/short setups, regional plays, macro takes, and how he thinks about conviction and risk. No fluff.
🌍Macro & Market Outlook
The market is offering a lot of opportunities on both the long and short side.
2026 is going to be a great year for the U.S. economy on the back of tax cuts.
“Fake recession” narrative driven by massive import activity ahead of tariffs.
In the end, tariffs will be a good process. There’s a solid UK deal if you read through it. We need fair trade with the world and China — and it’s not all bad.
The U.S. has an enormous advantage in tech and the private/corporate sector.
🌎 Latin America: Political Shift + Market Setup
Bullish across Latin America — equities, fixed income, credit, and currencies.
Political shifts toward center-right create opportunity: Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil elections are upcoming.
If he’s wrong on the U.S., Latin America becomes a kind of safe haven.
China will have a difficult next 10 years. Latin America is unloved and underinvested.
💵 Dollar, Rates, and the Fed
The dollar is the hardest thing to call.
He’s in the camp that rates will rise or stay steady — expects the 10Y to move above 5%.
Doesn’t see the Fed cutting interest rates.
🧠 Strategy & Risk Framework
Uses a blend of top-down and bottom-up. Cares about macro but isn’t afraid to size up.
Shorting is dangerous, but there are tactical short opportunities (see: regional banks). Timing remains tough.
Thinks in themes, not individual tickers. Keeps him focused and simplifies tracking.
📈 Portfolio Positioning
Long Argentina
Long India
Short regional banks
Short China
🎯 Big Bets, Big Discipline
Made a billion-dollar trade going long the Yen.
Sometimes you find something to go all-in on — concentrated bets with risk controls.
Argentina has been a major focus for these concentrated trades.
Key: always have the liquidity to exit. Don’t get trapped.
⏳ Market Structure & Patience
Markets are less efficient now — retail and machine money react to headlines.
Money doesn’t discount anymore; it reacts in real time. That makes timing harder.
If you can hold and stay with your positions, you’ll win.
Comes down to time preference. This reminds him of the marshmallow experiment.
A lot of investors are scared right now.
🔁 Routine, Edge & Mental Game
Rob has been waking up at 3am for 25 years — watches Asia close and Europe open.
Gives him a massive edge. It’s dedication.
3½ hours of REM sleep is enough, apparently.
On longevity in this game: “You have to love it.”
Greatest strength: pattern recognition and decisiveness.
From his father: “Whatever you do, do it 100%. If you can’t, then don’t do it.”
Admires George Soros, Julian Robertson, David Tepper, and Stanley Druckenmiller.
🧭 Final Advice
Love the game
Build deep relationships
Keep your integrity — it’s your edge
Citrone’s edge? Conviction, pattern recognition, and the liquidity to strike hard — and exit fast.
Stand on the edge,
-Molesy